The record
The reconstructed days
Show the backfill (reconstructed from fills)
backfill Rebuilt from the top 50 whales' fills for the 7 days before the first live snapshot. No hash, scored the same way, never mixed into the live record.
The whales are ahead of every baseline: 56% against always long 44%, yesterday's direction 28%, fading them 44%.
Backfill, all
56%
9 of 16 · 8 push
30 days
56%
9 of 16 · 8 push
Pending
4
scored 24 h after the seal
No call
112
fewer than 5 whales or under $5M
The baselines, side by side
| Hit rate | Hits | Misses | Pushes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The whales the sealed call | 56% | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Always long what crypto usually rewards | 44% | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Yesterday's direction momentum: the previous day as the call | 28% | 5 | 13 | 6 |
| Fade the whales the opposite of every call | 44% | 7 | 9 | 8 |
All four are scored on the same asset-days with the same ±0.5% push band. Pushes are left out of hit rates. If the whales don't beat the baselines, the line above says so.
Calibration: does stronger agreement call better?
| |net %| | Hit rate | Hits | Scored | Pushes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flat (under 10) | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10–25 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25–50 | 58% | 7 | 12 | 6 | |
| 50–100 | 50% | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Per asset
| Asset | All time | 30 days | Always long | Pending | No call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | 1 of 3 (33%) | 1 of 3 (33%) | 1 of 3 (33%) | 1 | 0 |
| HYPE | 3 of 5 (60%) | 3 of 5 (60%) | 3 of 5 (60%) | 1 | 0 |
| BTC | 2 of 4 (50%) | 2 of 4 (50%) | 2 of 4 (50%) | 1 | 0 |
| ETH | 3 of 4 (75%) | 3 of 4 (75%) | 1 of 4 (25%) | 1 | 0 |
| ZEC | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| NEAR | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| XRP | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| XMR | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| LIT | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| ENA | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| PUMP | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| UNI | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| XPL | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| DOGE | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| BNB | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| kPEPE | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| ZRO | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| VVV | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| AAVE | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
| LINK | — | — | — | 0 | 7 |
Best calls
- 2026-10-29HYPE long (net +35) → +10.42%HIT
- 2026-10-29ETH short (net −28) → −4.52%HIT
- 2026-10-27HYPE long (net +35) → +3.80%HIT
- 2026-10-26HYPE long (net +35) → +2.63%HIT
- 2026-10-25ETH short (net −28) → −1.25%HIT
Worst calls (misses get listed too)
- 2026-10-29SOL long (net +33) → −6.62%MISS
- 2026-10-29BTC long (net +63) → −4.15%MISS
- 2026-10-27ETH short (net −28) → +1.13%MISS
- 2026-10-25SOL long (net +33) → −0.99%MISS
- 2026-10-25BTC long (net +63) → −0.93%MISS
Day by day
| Date | Called | Always long | Pushes | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 2 | 0 |